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Avondale vs Melbourne Knights — Victoria NPL 2026

Avondale
Avondale
FT
6 – 1
Melbourne Knights
Melbourne Knights
3/14/2020Victoria NPLVictoria NPL · Round 5City Vista Recreation Reserve Pitch 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 78+ matches

Avondale63%
×Draw19%
Melbourne Knights18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Avondale
2.33
Melbourne Knights
1.16

Avondale creates 101% more chances

Season form · 90 home / 78 away

creates per match

Avondale
2.71
Melbourne Knights
1.29

allows per match

Avondale
1.02
Melbourne Knights
1.96

finishing

Avondale+0.00on par
Melbourne Knights+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Avondale ↓

Melbourne Knights →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Avondale or draw
82%
Avondale or Melbourne Knights
81%
Draw or Melbourne Knights
37%

Winning margin

Avondale wins by 2+
41%
Melbourne Knights wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Avondale 1+ goals
90%
Avondale 2+ goals
67%
Avondale 3+ goals
41%
Melbourne Knights 1+ goals
69%
Melbourne Knights 2+ goals
32%
Melbourne Knights 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Avondale (draw refunded)
78%
Melbourne Knights (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Avondale at home — creates 2.71, concedes 1.02 · 90 matches

Melbourne Knights away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.96 · 78 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Avondale attack 2.71 + Melbourne Knights defence 1.96 → ÷2 → 2.33

Melbourne Knights attack 1.29 + Avondale defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Avondale scores more
63%
level
19%
Melbourne Knights scores more
18%

Avondale at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Avondale will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Avondale 6 – 1 Melbourne Knights

Avondale beat Melbourne Knights 6-1 in Victoria NPL on March 14, 2020.

The match was played at City Vista Recreation Reserve Pitch 1 in Melbourne.