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Avondale vs Kingston City — Victoria NPL 2026

Avondale
Avondale
FT
2 – 1
Kingston City
Kingston City
3/2/2019Victoria NPLVictoria NPL · Round 3Avenger Park (Melbourne)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Avondale60%
×Draw19%
Kingston City21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Avondale
2.35
Kingston City
1.32

Avondale creates 78% more chances

Season form · 90 home / 13 away

creates per match

Avondale
2.71
Kingston City
1.62

allows per match

Avondale
1.02
Kingston City
2.00

finishing

Avondale+0.00on par
Kingston City+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Avondale ↓

Kingston City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
49%51%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Avondale or draw
79%
Avondale or Kingston City
81%
Draw or Kingston City
40%

Winning margin

Avondale wins by 2+
38%
Kingston City wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Avondale 1+ goals
90%
Avondale 2+ goals
68%
Avondale 3+ goals
41%
Kingston City 1+ goals
73%
Kingston City 2+ goals
38%
Kingston City 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Avondale (draw refunded)
74%
Kingston City (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Avondale at home — creates 2.71, concedes 1.02 · 90 matches

Kingston City away — creates 1.62, concedes 2.00 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Avondale attack 2.71 + Kingston City defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.35

Kingston City attack 1.62 + Avondale defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Avondale scores more
60%
level
19%
Kingston City scores more
21%

Avondale at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Avondale will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Avondale vs Kingston City

Avondale beat Kingston City 2-1 in Victoria NPL on March 2, 2019.

The match was played at Avenger Park (Melbourne).