Avondale 1–1 Brisbane Roar: Result & Stats

Avondale

Pens

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Brisbane Roar

8/17/2022

Australia Cup · Round of 16Valley Park Events Centre - Pitch 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Avondale36%

×Draw20%

Brisbane Roar44%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AvondaleExpected goals in this matchBrisbane Roar

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.10

2.30

Avondale

2.10

Brisbane Roar

2.30

Brisbane Roar creates 10% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 10 away

3.40

creates per match

2.20

2.40

allows per match

0.80

creates per match

Avondale

3.40

Brisbane Roar

2.20

allows per match

Avondale

2.40

Brisbane Roar

0.80

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Avondale+0.00on par

Brisbane Roar+0.00on par

Total goals

Over81
Under19

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes79
No21

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Avondale ↓

Brisbane Roar →

0–01%

0–13%

0–23%

0–33%

0–41%

1–03%

1–16%

1–27%

1–35%

1–43%

2–03%

2–16%

2–27%

2–36%

2–43%

3–02%

3–14%

3–25%

3–34%

3–42%

4–01%

4–12%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (7%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

93%7%2.5

81%19%3.5

64%36%4.5

44%56%

Double chance

Avondale or draw

56%

Avondale or Brisbane Roar

80%

Draw or Brisbane Roar

64%

Winning margin

Avondale wins by 2+

20%

Brisbane Roar wins by 2+

25%

Team goals

Avondale 1+ goals

88%

Avondale 2+ goals

62%

Avondale 3+ goals

35%

Brisbane Roar 1+ goals

90%

Brisbane Roar 2+ goals

67%

Brisbane Roar 3+ goals

40%

Draw no bet

Avondale (draw refunded)

46%

Brisbane Roar (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

73%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Avondale at home — creates 3.40, concedes 2.40 · 5 matches

Brisbane Roar away — creates 2.20, concedes 0.80 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Avondale attack 3.40 + Brisbane Roar defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 2.10

Brisbane Roar attack 2.20 + Avondale defence 2.40 → ÷2 → 2.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 44%?"

Avondale scores more

36%

level

20%

Brisbane Roar scores more

44%

Brisbane Roar at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Brisbane Roar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff