Avondale 3–1 APIA Leichhardt Tigers: Result & Stats

Avondale

3 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

APIA Leichhardt Tigers

M. Aguek 76'

L. Tevere 45'

S. Zinni 9'

S. Kambayashi 24'

8/13/2025

Australia Cup · Round of 16Green Gully Reserve

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Avondale38%

×Draw19%

APIA Leichhardt Tigers43%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AvondaleExpected goals in this matchAPIA Leichhardt Tigers

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.37

2.54

Avondale

2.37

APIA Leichhardt Tigers

2.54

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 5 home / 3 away

3.40

creates per match

2.67

2.40

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

Avondale

3.40

APIA Leichhardt Tigers

2.67

allows per match

Avondale

2.40

APIA Leichhardt Tigers

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Avondale+0.00on par

APIA Leichhardt Tigers+0.00on par

Total goals

Over86
Under14

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes83
No17

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Avondale ↓

APIA Leichhardt Tigers →

0–01%

0–12%

0–22%

0–32%

0–41%

1–02%

1–15%

1–26%

1–35%

1–43%

2–02%

2–15%

2–27%

2–36%

2–44%

3–02%

3–14%

3–25%

3–35%

3–43%

4–01%

4–13%

4–23%

4–33%

4–42%

Most likely 2–2 (7%) · grid covers 83% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

96%4%2.5

86%14%3.5

71%29%4.5

53%47%

Double chance

Avondale or draw

57%

Avondale or APIA Leichhardt Tigers

81%

Draw or APIA Leichhardt Tigers

62%

Winning margin

Avondale wins by 2+

21%

APIA Leichhardt Tigers wins by 2+

26%

Team goals

Avondale 1+ goals

91%

Avondale 2+ goals

68%

Avondale 3+ goals

42%

APIA Leichhardt Tigers 1+ goals

92%

APIA Leichhardt Tigers 2+ goals

72%

APIA Leichhardt Tigers 3+ goals

46%

Draw no bet

Avondale (draw refunded)

47%

APIA Leichhardt Tigers (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

79%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Avondale at home — creates 3.40, concedes 2.40 · 5 matches

APIA Leichhardt Tigers away — creates 2.67, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Avondale attack 3.40 + APIA Leichhardt Tigers defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 2.37

APIA Leichhardt Tigers attack 2.67 + Avondale defence 2.40 → ÷2 → 2.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 43%?"

Avondale scores more

38%

level

19%

APIA Leichhardt Tigers scores more

43%

APIA Leichhardt Tigers at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "APIA Leichhardt Tigers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

E. Caspers

S. Zinni↳ L. Tevere

24'

S. Kambayashi↳ J. Stewart

34'

45'

45'

51'

55'

61'

B. Carpenter← J. Courtney-Perkins

66'

M. Kasalovic← F. Farinella

67'

K. Kur← S. Zinni

70'

S. Valentini

73'

A. Denmead← E. Caspers

73'

R. Jordan← P. Ortiz

76'

M. Aguek↳ B. Carpenter

80'

M. D’Argenio← M. Reid

80'

C. Cuba← S. Valentini

80'

G. Ott← K. Trajceski

83'

E. Wellsmore

90+1'

M. Court← F. Monge

Avondale

APIA

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽A

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

Zinni

61'▲B. Carpenter←▼J. Courtney-Perkins

67'▲K. Kur←▼S. Zinni

80'▲M. D’Argenio←▼M. Reid

80'▲C. Cuba←▼S. Valentini

80'▲G. Ott←▼K. Trajceski

Avondale substitutes

38Mayen14Carpenter2D’Argenio80Cuba11Kur9Ott

Manager: Franco Parisi

66'▲M. Kasalovic←▼F. Farinella

73'▲A. Denmead←▼E. Caspers

73'▲R. Jordan←▼P. Ortiz

90+1'▲M. Court←▼F. Monge

APIA Leichhardt Tigers substitutes

20Parkes6Flottmann14Court29Kasalovic18Ucchino30Denmead11Jordan

Match Recap: Avondale vs APIA Leichhardt Tigers

Avondale beat APIA Leichhardt Tigers 3-1 in Australia Cup on August 13, 2025.

Goals: S. Zinni (9'), S. Kambayashi (24'), L. Tevere (45'), M. Aguek (76').

The match was played at Green Gully Reserve in Melbourne.

Avondale vs APIA Leichhardt Tigers — Australia Cup 2021

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Avondale vs APIA Leichhardt Tigers