Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Avondale vs Altona Magic — Victoria NPL 2026

Avondale
Avondale
FT
4 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Altona Magic
Altona Magic
4/6/2024Victoria NPLVictoria NPL · Round 8Avenger Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 87+ matches

Avondale64%
×Draw19%
Altona Magic18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Avondale
2.42
Altona Magic
1.21

Avondale creates 100% more chances

Season form · 90 home / 87 away

creates per match

Avondale
2.71
Altona Magic
1.40

allows per match

Avondale
1.02
Altona Magic
2.14

finishing

Avondale+0.00on par
Altona Magic+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Avondale ↓

Altona Magic →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
48%52%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Avondale or draw
82%
Avondale or Altona Magic
81%
Draw or Altona Magic
36%

Winning margin

Avondale wins by 2+
42%
Altona Magic wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Avondale 1+ goals
91%
Avondale 2+ goals
69%
Avondale 3+ goals
43%
Altona Magic 1+ goals
70%
Altona Magic 2+ goals
34%
Altona Magic 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Avondale (draw refunded)
78%
Altona Magic (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Avondale at home — creates 2.71, concedes 1.02 · 90 matches

Altona Magic away — creates 1.40, concedes 2.14 · 87 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Avondale attack 2.71 + Altona Magic defence 2.14 → ÷2 → 2.42

Altona Magic attack 1.40 + Avondale defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Avondale scores more
64%
level
19%
Altona Magic scores more
18%

Avondale at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Avondale will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Victoria NPL: Avondale 4–0 Altona Magic

Avondale beat Altona Magic 4-0 in Victoria NPL on April 6, 2024.

The match was played at Avenger Park in Melbourne.