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Avoine OCC vs Vierzon FC — Coupe de France 2018

Avoine OCC
Avoine OCC
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Vierzon FC
Vierzon FCadvanced
1/8/2023Coupe de FranceCoupe de France · Round of 64Stade Marcel Vignaud

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Avoine OCC19%
×Draw18%
Vierzon FC63%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Avoine OCC
1.33
Vierzon FC
2.56

Vierzon FC creates 92% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 5 away

creates per match

Avoine OCC
1.67
Vierzon FC
2.80

allows per match

Avoine OCC
2.33
Vierzon FC
1.00

finishing

Avoine OCC+0.00on par
Vierzon FC+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Avoine OCC ↓

Vierzon FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–27%
0–36%
0–44%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–29%
1–38%
1–45%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–26%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
54%46%4.5
34%66%

Double chance

Avoine OCC or draw
37%
Avoine OCC or Vierzon FC
82%
Draw or Vierzon FC
81%

Winning margin

Avoine OCC wins by 2+
7%
Vierzon FC wins by 2+
42%

Team goals

Avoine OCC 1+ goals
74%
Avoine OCC 2+ goals
38%
Avoine OCC 3+ goals
15%
Vierzon FC 1+ goals
92%
Vierzon FC 2+ goals
72%
Vierzon FC 3+ goals
46%

Draw no bet

Avoine OCC (draw refunded)
23%
Vierzon FC (draw refunded)
77%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Avoine OCC at home — creates 1.67, concedes 2.33 · 3 matches

Vierzon FC away — creates 2.80, concedes 1.00 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Avoine OCC attack 1.67 + Vierzon FC defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.33

Vierzon FC attack 2.80 + Avoine OCC defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 2.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Avoine OCC scores more
19%
level
18%
Vierzon FC scores more
63%

Vierzon FC at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Vierzon FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Avoine OCC vs Vierzon FC

Vierzon FC beat Avoine OCC 2-1 in Coupe de France on January 8, 2023.

The match was played at Stade Marcel Vignaud in Avoine.