Avoine OCC 0–4 Strasbourg: Result & Stats

Avoine OCC

0 – 4

HT: 0 – 2

Strasbourg

1/6/2024

Coupe de France · Round of 64Stade de la Vallée du Cher

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Avoine OCC18%

×Draw18%

Strasbourg64%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Avoine OCCExpected goals in this matchStrasbourg

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.28

2.52

Avoine OCC

1.28

Strasbourg

2.52

Strasbourg creates 97% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 10 away

1.67

creates per match

2.70

2.33

allows per match

0.90

creates per match

Avoine OCC

1.67

Strasbourg

2.70

allows per match

Avoine OCC

2.33

Strasbourg

0.90

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Avoine OCC+0.00on par

Strasbourg+0.00on par

Total goals

Over73
Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Avoine OCC ↓

Strasbourg →

0–02%

0–16%

0–27%

0–36%

0–44%

1–03%

1–17%

1–29%

1–38%

1–45%

2–02%

2–15%

2–26%

2–35%

2–43%

3–01%

3–12%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

73%27%3.5

52%48%4.5

32%68%

Double chance

Avoine OCC or draw

36%

Avoine OCC or Strasbourg

82%

Draw or Strasbourg

82%

Winning margin

Avoine OCC wins by 2+

Strasbourg wins by 2+

42%

Team goals

Avoine OCC 1+ goals

72%

Avoine OCC 2+ goals

37%

Avoine OCC 3+ goals

14%

Strasbourg 1+ goals

92%

Strasbourg 2+ goals

71%

Strasbourg 3+ goals

45%

Draw no bet

Avoine OCC (draw refunded)

22%

Strasbourg (draw refunded)

78%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

59%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Avoine OCC at home — creates 1.67, concedes 2.33 · 3 matches

Strasbourg away — creates 2.70, concedes 0.90 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Avoine OCC attack 1.67 + Strasbourg defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 1.28

Strasbourg attack 2.70 + Avoine OCC defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 2.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 64%?"

Avoine OCC scores more

18%

level

18%

Strasbourg scores more

64%

Strasbourg at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Strasbourg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff