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Avispa Fukuoka vs Yokohama F. Marinos — J1 League 2018

Avispa Fukuoka
Avispa Fukuoka
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Yokohama F. Marinos
Yokohama F. Marinos
6/26/2024J1 LeagueJ1 League · Round 20Best Denki Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 96+ matches

Avispa Fukuoka34%
×Draw26%
Yokohama F. Marinos40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Avispa Fukuoka
1.27
Yokohama F. Marinos
1.39

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 96 home / 153 away

creates per match

Avispa Fukuoka
1.03
Yokohama F. Marinos
1.68

allows per match

Avispa Fukuoka
1.09
Yokohama F. Marinos
1.52

finishing

Avispa Fukuoka+0.00on par
Yokohama F. Marinos+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Avispa Fukuoka ↓

Yokohama F. Marinos →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Avispa Fukuoka or draw
60%
Avispa Fukuoka or Yokohama F. Marinos
74%
Draw or Yokohama F. Marinos
66%

Winning margin

Avispa Fukuoka wins by 2+
15%
Yokohama F. Marinos wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Avispa Fukuoka 1+ goals
72%
Avispa Fukuoka 2+ goals
36%
Avispa Fukuoka 3+ goals
14%
Yokohama F. Marinos 1+ goals
75%
Yokohama F. Marinos 2+ goals
40%
Yokohama F. Marinos 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Avispa Fukuoka (draw refunded)
46%
Yokohama F. Marinos (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Avispa Fukuoka at home — creates 1.03, concedes 1.09 · 96 matches

Yokohama F. Marinos away — creates 1.68, concedes 1.52 · 153 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Avispa Fukuoka attack 1.03 + Yokohama F. Marinos defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.27

Yokohama F. Marinos attack 1.68 + Avispa Fukuoka defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Avispa Fukuoka scores more
34%
level
26%
Yokohama F. Marinos scores more
40%

Yokohama F. Marinos at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Yokohama F. Marinos will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Avispa Fukuoka vs Yokohama F. Marinos

Avispa Fukuoka beat Yokohama F. Marinos 2-1 in J1 League on June 26, 2024.

The match was played at Best Denki Stadium in Fukuoka.