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Avispa Fukuoka vs Kyoto Sanga — J1 League 2018

Avispa Fukuoka
Avispa Fukuoka
Preview
10:00
Kyoto Sanga
Kyoto Sanga
5/9/2027J1 LeagueJ1 League · Round 34Best Denki Stadium
Big match
37%
Avispa Fukuoka
model favours
37%28%35%

Kyoto Sanga score first in only 27% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
59%
under 2.5 goals
47%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 80+ matches

Avispa Fukuoka37%
×Draw28%
Kyoto Sanga35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Avispa Fukuoka
1.18
Kyoto Sanga
1.13

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 96 home / 80 away

creates per match

Avispa Fukuoka
1.03
Kyoto Sanga
1.16

allows per match

Avispa Fukuoka
1.09
Kyoto Sanga
1.32

finishing

Avispa Fukuoka+0.00on par
Kyoto Sanga+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Avispa Fukuoka ↓

Kyoto Sanga →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Avispa Fukuoka or draw
65%
Avispa Fukuoka or Kyoto Sanga
72%
Draw or Kyoto Sanga
63%

Winning margin

Avispa Fukuoka wins by 2+
16%
Kyoto Sanga wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Avispa Fukuoka 1+ goals
69%
Avispa Fukuoka 2+ goals
33%
Avispa Fukuoka 3+ goals
12%
Kyoto Sanga 1+ goals
68%
Kyoto Sanga 2+ goals
31%
Kyoto Sanga 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Avispa Fukuoka (draw refunded)
52%
Kyoto Sanga (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Avispa Fukuoka at home — creates 1.03, concedes 1.09 · 96 matches

Kyoto Sanga away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.32 · 80 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Avispa Fukuoka attack 1.03 + Kyoto Sanga defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.18

Kyoto Sanga attack 1.16 + Avispa Fukuoka defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Avispa Fukuoka scores more
37%
level
28%
Kyoto Sanga scores more
35%

Avispa Fukuoka at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Avispa Fukuoka will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • 73% of Kyoto Sanga’s matches go over 2.5 goals

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Similar styles
Avispa Fukuoka
Balanced
Kyoto Sanga
Balanced
47%Possession51%
72%Pass accuracy71%
9.7ShotsBiggest gap12.8
1.00xG1.13
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
Avispa FukuokaKyoto Sanga

Head-to-head

10 previous meetings

5
Avispa Fukuoka
2
Draws
3
Kyoto Sanga
Avg goals: 2.4BTTS: 50%
1–10–22–21–01–2

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Fukuoka
LWDLD
Sanga
WLWLL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Avispa Fukuoka vs Kyoto Sanga — Match Preview

Avispa Fukuoka face Kyoto Sanga on May 9, 2027 in this J1 League fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Avispa Fukuoka host Kyoto Sanga at Best Denki Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.