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Avispa Fukuoka vs Kyoto Sanga — J2 League 2018

Avispa Fukuoka
Avispa Fukuoka
FT
2 – 2
HT: 2 – 0
Kyoto Sanga
Kyoto Sanga
3/3/2018J2 LeagueJ2 League · Round 2Level-5 stadium (Fukuoka)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 64+ matches

Avispa Fukuoka39%
×Draw28%
Kyoto Sanga33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Avispa Fukuoka
1.21
Kyoto Sanga
1.08

Avispa Fukuoka creates 12% more chances

Season form · 64 home / 89 away

creates per match

Avispa Fukuoka
1.22
Kyoto Sanga
1.19

allows per match

Avispa Fukuoka
0.97
Kyoto Sanga
1.21

finishing

Avispa Fukuoka+0.00on par
Kyoto Sanga+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Avispa Fukuoka ↓

Kyoto Sanga →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Avispa Fukuoka or draw
67%
Avispa Fukuoka or Kyoto Sanga
72%
Draw or Kyoto Sanga
61%

Winning margin

Avispa Fukuoka wins by 2+
17%
Kyoto Sanga wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Avispa Fukuoka 1+ goals
70%
Avispa Fukuoka 2+ goals
34%
Avispa Fukuoka 3+ goals
12%
Kyoto Sanga 1+ goals
66%
Kyoto Sanga 2+ goals
29%
Kyoto Sanga 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Avispa Fukuoka (draw refunded)
54%
Kyoto Sanga (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Avispa Fukuoka at home — creates 1.22, concedes 0.97 · 64 matches

Kyoto Sanga away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.21 · 89 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Avispa Fukuoka attack 1.22 + Kyoto Sanga defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.21

Kyoto Sanga attack 1.19 + Avispa Fukuoka defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Avispa Fukuoka scores more
39%
level
28%
Kyoto Sanga scores more
33%

Avispa Fukuoka at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Avispa Fukuoka will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Avispa Fukuoka vs Kyoto Sanga

Avispa Fukuoka and Kyoto Sanga drew 2-2 in J2 League on March 3, 2018.

The match was played at Level-5 stadium (Fukuoka).