Avispa Fukuoka 1–2 Kawasaki Frontale

Avispa Fukuoka

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Kawasaki Frontale

N. Ben Khalifa 15'

Erison 85'

A. Ienaga 42'

2/26/2025

J1 League · Round 3Best Denki Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 13+ matches

Avispa Fukuoka33%

×Draw26%

Kawasaki Frontale41%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 585,131 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Avispa FukuokaExpected goals in this matchKawasaki Frontale

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.23

1.42

Avispa Fukuoka

1.23

Kawasaki Frontale

1.42

Kawasaki Frontale creates 15% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 16 away

1.15

creates per match

1.59

1.24

allows per match

1.32

creates per match

Avispa Fukuoka

1.15

Kawasaki Frontale

1.59

allows per match

Avispa Fukuoka

1.24

Kawasaki Frontale

1.32

-0.15scores less than expected

finishing

+0.22scores more than expected

finishing

Avispa Fukuoka-0.15scores less

Kawasaki Frontale+0.22scores more

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Avispa Fukuoka ↓

Kawasaki Frontale →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–110%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Avispa Fukuoka or draw

59%

Avispa Fukuoka or Kawasaki Frontale

74%

Draw or Kawasaki Frontale

67%

Winning margin

Avispa Fukuoka wins by 2+

14%

Kawasaki Frontale wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Avispa Fukuoka 1+ goals

71%

Avispa Fukuoka 2+ goals

35%

Avispa Fukuoka 3+ goals

13%

Kawasaki Frontale 1+ goals

76%

Kawasaki Frontale 2+ goals

41%

Kawasaki Frontale 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Avispa Fukuoka (draw refunded)

44%

Kawasaki Frontale (draw refunded)

56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Avispa Fukuoka at home — creates 1.15, concedes 1.24 · 13 matches

Kawasaki Frontale away — creates 1.59, concedes 1.32 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Avispa Fukuoka attack 1.15 + Kawasaki Frontale defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.23

Kawasaki Frontale attack 1.59 + Avispa Fukuoka defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Avispa Fukuoka scores more

33%

level

26%

Kawasaki Frontale scores more

41%

Kawasaki Frontale at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Kawasaki Frontale will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

41

A. Ienaga

Kawasaki Frontale · M

8.0

Match Events

15'

N. Ben Khalifa↳ H. Akino

24'

Kota Takai

33'

Kento Tachibanada

42'

A. Ienaga↳ S. Miura

46'

Y. Iwasaki← N. Ben Khalifa

58'

K. Konno← T. Kanamori

58'

S. Kawahara← K. Tachibanada

69'

A. Sasaki← S. van Wermeskerken

69'

Erison← S. Yamada

69'

T. Ito← A. Ienaga

74'

K. Fujimoto← T. Shichi

74'

78'

81'

82'

85'

Erison↳ T. Ito

86'

S. Zahedi← M. Yuzawa

90+5'

Kazuki Fujimoto

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AvispaKawasaki

Overview

38%Possession62%

12Total Shots9

1.05Expected Goals (xG)0.64

2Corners7

8Fouls11

Shots

12Total Shots9

4On Target5

4Off Target4

4Blocked0

9Inside Box7

3Outside Box2

Passing

38%Possession62%

383Total Passes621

302Accurate Passes528

79%Pass Accuracy85%

Goalkeeping

4Saves3

Discipline

8Fouls11

2Yellow Cards3

1Offsides4