Avispa Fukuoka 2–2 Kanazawa: Result & Stats

Avispa Fukuoka

FT

2 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Kanazawa

12/6/2020

J2 League · Round 39Level-5 Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 64+ matches

Avispa Fukuoka43%

×Draw27%

Kanazawa30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Avispa FukuokaExpected goals in this matchKanazawa

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.38

1.11

Avispa Fukuoka

1.38

Kanazawa

1.11

Avispa Fukuoka creates 24% more chances

Season form · 64 home / 126 away

1.22

creates per match

1.25

0.97

allows per match

1.54

creates per match

Avispa Fukuoka

1.22

Kanazawa

1.25

allows per match

Avispa Fukuoka

0.97

Kanazawa

1.54

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Avispa Fukuoka+0.00on par

Kanazawa+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Avispa Fukuoka ↓

Kanazawa →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Avispa Fukuoka or draw

70%

Avispa Fukuoka or Kanazawa

73%

Draw or Kanazawa

57%

Winning margin

Avispa Fukuoka wins by 2+

20%

Kanazawa wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Avispa Fukuoka 1+ goals

75%

Avispa Fukuoka 2+ goals

40%

Avispa Fukuoka 3+ goals

16%

Kanazawa 1+ goals

67%

Kanazawa 2+ goals

30%

Kanazawa 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Avispa Fukuoka (draw refunded)

59%

Kanazawa (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Avispa Fukuoka at home — creates 1.22, concedes 0.97 · 64 matches

Kanazawa away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.54 · 126 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Avispa Fukuoka attack 1.22 + Kanazawa defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.38

Kanazawa attack 1.25 + Avispa Fukuoka defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Avispa Fukuoka scores more

43%

level

27%

Kanazawa scores more

30%

Avispa Fukuoka at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Avispa Fukuoka will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff