Avispa Fukuoka vs JEF United Chiba — J2 League 2024
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 5+ matches
Avispa Fukuoka48%
JEF United Chiba27%✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Avispa Fukuoka creates 43% more chances
Season form · 5 home / 44 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under51
- Over49
Close call
Both teams score
- Yes52
- No48
Close call
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Avispa Fukuoka ↓
Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Avispa Fukuoka at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.00 · 5 matches
JEF United Chiba away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.11 · 44 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Avispa Fukuoka attack 2.00 + JEF United Chiba defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.56
JEF United Chiba attack 1.18 + Avispa Fukuoka defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.09
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 48%?"
Avispa Fukuoka at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 48% does not mean "Avispa Fukuoka will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Events
Shimizu S-pulse
Yokohama FC
V-varen Nagasaki
Montedio Yamagata
Fagiano Okayama
Vegalta SendaiJEF United Chiba
Tokushima Vortis
Iwaki
Blaublitz Akita
Renofa Yamaguchi
Roasso Kumamoto
Fujieda MYFC
Ventforet Kofu
Mito Hollyhock
Oita Trinita
Ehime FC
Tochigi SC
Kagoshima United
Thespakusatsu GunmaIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Avispa Fukuoka host JEF United Chiba on Sunday, 25 October 2020 at 05:00. The match is part of the J2 League 2024/2025 season.
Match Recap: Avispa Fukuoka vs JEF United Chiba
Avispa Fukuoka beat JEF United Chiba 1-0 in J2 League on October 25, 2020.
Goals: T. Matsumoto (10').
The match was played at Level-5 Stadium in Fukuoka.