Avispa Fukuoka 1–3 FC Gifu: Result & Stats

Avispa Fukuoka

FT

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 2

FC Gifu

K. Kido 90+1'

S. Kawanishi 90+4', 10'

R. Maeda 23'

7/6/2019

J2 League · Round 21Level-5 stadium (Fukuoka)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Avispa Fukuoka55%

×Draw23%

FC Gifu22%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Avispa FukuokaExpected goals in this matchFC Gifu

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.83

1.06

Avispa Fukuoka

1.83

FC Gifu

1.06

Avispa Fukuoka creates 73% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 9 away

2.00

creates per match

1.11

1.00

allows per match

1.67

creates per match

Avispa Fukuoka

2.00

FC Gifu

1.11

allows per match

Avispa Fukuoka

1.00

FC Gifu

1.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Avispa Fukuoka+0.00on par

FC Gifu+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Avispa Fukuoka ↓

FC Gifu →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

33%67%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Avispa Fukuoka or draw

78%

Avispa Fukuoka or FC Gifu

77%

Draw or FC Gifu

45%

Winning margin

Avispa Fukuoka wins by 2+

31%

FC Gifu wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Avispa Fukuoka 1+ goals

84%

Avispa Fukuoka 2+ goals

54%

Avispa Fukuoka 3+ goals

28%

FC Gifu 1+ goals

65%

FC Gifu 2+ goals

29%

FC Gifu 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Avispa Fukuoka (draw refunded)

72%

FC Gifu (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Avispa Fukuoka at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.00 · 5 matches

FC Gifu away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.67 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Avispa Fukuoka attack 2.00 + FC Gifu defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.83

FC Gifu attack 1.11 + Avispa Fukuoka defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Avispa Fukuoka scores more

55%

level

23%

FC Gifu scores more

22%

Avispa Fukuoka at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Avispa Fukuoka will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

6'

10'

16'

23'

52'

56'

T. Morimoto← K. Mikuni

57'

Ham Yeong-Jun← R. De Vries

74'

J. Tabinas← M. Ichimaru

80'

K. Kido← H. Kida

81'

K. Nakashima← R. Maeda

84'

S. Kawanishi

90+1'

K. Kido

90+4'

S. Kawanishi

Avispa

FC

43

3

2

4

17

5

⚽2

Kawanishi

31

Miyamoto

37

▼

Ichimaru

9

Yamagishi

11

⚽

▼

Maeda

10

▼

1

29

22

39

3

6

20

▼

Mikuni

19

Tanabe

26

▼

Kida

9

Dong-Hyen

16

▼

Ishizu

Manager: K. Kudo

16'▲Y. Saneto←▼D. Ishizu

56'▲T. Morimoto←▼K. Mikuni

80'▲K. Kido←▼H. Kida

Avispa Fukuoka substitutes

5Saneto15Morimoto13Kido14Maekawa24Kuwahara31Yamanoi36Kikuchi

Manager: M. Kitano

57'▲Ham Yeong-Jun←▼R. De Vries

74'▲J. Tabinas←▼M. Ichimaru

81'▲K. Nakashima←▼R. Maeda

FC Gifu substitutes

26Yeong-Jun36Tabinas30Nakashima8Bulot14Kazama18Ishikawa21Harada