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Avion Academy vs Tonnerre — Elite One 2019

Avion Academy
Avion Academy
FT
0 – 1
Tonnerre
Tonnerre
4/7/2019Elite OneElite One · Round 13Limbe Centenary Stadium (Limbe)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Avion Academy45%
×Draw28%
Tonnerre27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Avion Academy
1.31
Tonnerre
0.95

Avion Academy creates 38% more chances

Season form · 63 home / 7 away

creates per match

Avion Academy
1.06
Tonnerre
0.86

allows per match

Avion Academy
1.03
Tonnerre
1.57

finishing

Avion Academy+0.00on par
Tonnerre+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Avion Academy ↓

Tonnerre →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Avion Academy or draw
73%
Avion Academy or Tonnerre
72%
Draw or Tonnerre
55%

Winning margin

Avion Academy wins by 2+
21%
Tonnerre wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Avion Academy 1+ goals
73%
Avion Academy 2+ goals
38%
Avion Academy 3+ goals
14%
Tonnerre 1+ goals
61%
Tonnerre 2+ goals
25%
Tonnerre 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Avion Academy (draw refunded)
62%
Tonnerre (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Avion Academy at home — creates 1.06, concedes 1.03 · 63 matches

Tonnerre away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.57 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Avion Academy attack 1.06 + Tonnerre defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.31

Tonnerre attack 0.86 + Avion Academy defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Avion Academy scores more
45%
level
28%
Tonnerre scores more
27%

Avion Academy at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Avion Academy will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Elite One: Avion Academy 0–1 Tonnerre

Tonnerre beat Avion Academy 1-0 in Elite One on April 7, 2019.

The match was played at Limbe Centenary Stadium (Limbe).