Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Avion Academy vs New Star — Elite One 2019

Avion Academy
Avion Academy
FT
3 – 0
New Star
New Star
3/30/2022Elite OneElite One · Round 5Stade Municipal de Bafoussam

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Avion Academy48%
×Draw28%
New Star24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Avion Academy
1.33
New Star
0.85

Avion Academy creates 56% more chances

Season form · 63 home / 34 away

creates per match

Avion Academy
1.06
New Star
0.68

allows per match

Avion Academy
1.03
New Star
1.59

finishing

Avion Academy+0.00on par
New Star+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Avion Academy ↓

New Star →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Avion Academy or draw
76%
Avion Academy or New Star
72%
Draw or New Star
52%

Winning margin

Avion Academy wins by 2+
23%
New Star wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Avion Academy 1+ goals
74%
Avion Academy 2+ goals
38%
Avion Academy 3+ goals
15%
New Star 1+ goals
57%
New Star 2+ goals
21%
New Star 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Avion Academy (draw refunded)
67%
New Star (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Avion Academy at home — creates 1.06, concedes 1.03 · 63 matches

New Star away — creates 0.68, concedes 1.59 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Avion Academy attack 1.06 + New Star defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.33

New Star attack 0.68 + Avion Academy defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Avion Academy scores more
48%
level
28%
New Star scores more
24%

Avion Academy at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Avion Academy will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Avion Academy vs New Star

Avion Academy beat New Star 3-0 in Elite One on March 30, 2022.

The match was played at Stade Municipal de Bafoussam in Bafoussam.