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Avion Academy vs Feutcheu — Elite One 2019

Avion Academy
Avion Academy
FT
1 – 1
Feutcheu
Feutcheu
4/22/2023Elite OneElite One · Round 21Stade Mbappe Leppe

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

Avion Academy35%
×Draw30%
Feutcheu35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Avion Academy
1.05
Feutcheu
1.04

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 63 home / 57 away

creates per match

Avion Academy
1.06
Feutcheu
1.04

allows per match

Avion Academy
1.03
Feutcheu
1.04

finishing

Avion Academy+0.00on par
Feutcheu+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Avion Academy ↓

Feutcheu →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–113%
0–27%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–114%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Avion Academy or draw
65%
Avion Academy or Feutcheu
70%
Draw or Feutcheu
65%

Winning margin

Avion Academy wins by 2+
14%
Feutcheu wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Avion Academy 1+ goals
65%
Avion Academy 2+ goals
28%
Avion Academy 3+ goals
9%
Feutcheu 1+ goals
65%
Feutcheu 2+ goals
28%
Feutcheu 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Avion Academy (draw refunded)
50%
Feutcheu (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Avion Academy at home — creates 1.06, concedes 1.03 · 63 matches

Feutcheu away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.04 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Avion Academy attack 1.06 + Feutcheu defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.05

Feutcheu attack 1.04 + Avion Academy defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 35%?"

Avion Academy scores more
35%
level
30%
Feutcheu scores more
35%

Avion Academy at 35% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 35% does not mean "Avion Academy will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Elite One: Avion Academy 1–1 Feutcheu

Avion Academy and Feutcheu drew 1-1 in Elite One on April 22, 2023.

The match was played at Stade Mbappe Leppe in Douala.