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Avion Academy vs Bafmeng United — Elite Two 2020

Avion Academy
Avion Academy
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Bafmeng United
Bafmeng United
3/15/2026Elite TwoElite Two · Round 7

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Avion Academy47%
×Draw26%
Bafmeng United27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Avion Academy
1.50
Bafmeng United
1.06

Avion Academy creates 42% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 34 away

creates per match

Avion Academy
1.48
Bafmeng United
1.03

allows per match

Avion Academy
1.10
Bafmeng United
1.53

finishing

Avion Academy+0.00on par
Bafmeng United+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Avion Academy ↓

Bafmeng United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Avion Academy or draw
73%
Avion Academy or Bafmeng United
74%
Draw or Bafmeng United
53%

Winning margin

Avion Academy wins by 2+
24%
Bafmeng United wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Avion Academy 1+ goals
78%
Avion Academy 2+ goals
44%
Avion Academy 3+ goals
19%
Bafmeng United 1+ goals
65%
Bafmeng United 2+ goals
29%
Bafmeng United 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Avion Academy (draw refunded)
64%
Bafmeng United (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Avion Academy at home — creates 1.48, concedes 1.10 · 21 matches

Bafmeng United away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.53 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Avion Academy attack 1.48 + Bafmeng United defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.50

Bafmeng United attack 1.03 + Avion Academy defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Avion Academy scores more
47%
level
26%
Bafmeng United scores more
27%

Avion Academy at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Avion Academy will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Avion Academy vs Bafmeng United

Avion Academy beat Bafmeng United 1-0 in Elite Two on March 15, 2026.