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Avion Academy vs APEJES Academy — Elite Two 2020

Avion Academy
Avion Academy
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
APEJES Academy
APEJES Academy
3/9/2025Elite TwoElite Two · Round 9

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Avion Academy34%
×Draw26%
APEJES Academy41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Avion Academy
1.29
APEJES Academy
1.45

APEJES Academy creates 12% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 20 away

creates per match

Avion Academy
1.48
APEJES Academy
1.80

allows per match

Avion Academy
1.10
APEJES Academy
1.10

finishing

Avion Academy+0.00on par
APEJES Academy+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Avion Academy ↓

APEJES Academy →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Avion Academy or draw
59%
Avion Academy or APEJES Academy
74%
Draw or APEJES Academy
66%

Winning margin

Avion Academy wins by 2+
15%
APEJES Academy wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Avion Academy 1+ goals
72%
Avion Academy 2+ goals
37%
Avion Academy 3+ goals
14%
APEJES Academy 1+ goals
77%
APEJES Academy 2+ goals
42%
APEJES Academy 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Avion Academy (draw refunded)
45%
APEJES Academy (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Avion Academy at home — creates 1.48, concedes 1.10 · 21 matches

APEJES Academy away — creates 1.80, concedes 1.10 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Avion Academy attack 1.48 + APEJES Academy defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.29

APEJES Academy attack 1.80 + Avion Academy defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Avion Academy scores more
34%
level
26%
APEJES Academy scores more
41%

APEJES Academy at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "APEJES Academy will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Elite Two: Avion Academy 0–2 APEJES Academy

APEJES Academy beat Avion Academy 2-0 in Elite Two on March 9, 2025.