Avion Academy 4–2 APEJES Academy: Result & Stats

Avion Academy

FT

4 – 2

APEJES Academy

3/8/2020

Elite One · Round 27Middle Farm Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 63+ matches

Avion Academy39%

×Draw29%

APEJES Academy32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Avion AcademyExpected goals in this matchAPEJES Academy

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.15

1.02

Avion Academy

1.15

APEJES Academy

1.02

Avion Academy creates 13% more chances

Season form · 63 home / 67 away

1.06

creates per match

1.01

1.03

allows per match

1.24

creates per match

Avion Academy

1.06

APEJES Academy

1.01

allows per match

Avion Academy

1.03

APEJES Academy

1.24

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Avion Academy+0.00on par

APEJES Academy+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Avion Academy ↓

APEJES Academy →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–112%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Avion Academy or draw

68%

Avion Academy or APEJES Academy

71%

Draw or APEJES Academy

61%

Winning margin

Avion Academy wins by 2+

16%

APEJES Academy wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Avion Academy 1+ goals

68%

Avion Academy 2+ goals

32%

Avion Academy 3+ goals

11%

APEJES Academy 1+ goals

64%

APEJES Academy 2+ goals

27%

APEJES Academy 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Avion Academy (draw refunded)

55%

APEJES Academy (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Avion Academy at home — creates 1.06, concedes 1.03 · 63 matches

APEJES Academy away — creates 1.01, concedes 1.24 · 67 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Avion Academy attack 1.06 + APEJES Academy defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.15

APEJES Academy attack 1.01 + Avion Academy defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Avion Academy scores more

39%

level

29%

APEJES Academy scores more

32%

Avion Academy at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Avion Academy will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff