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Avilés Stadium vs Siero — Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Avilés Stadium
Avilés Stadium
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Siero
Siero
5/29/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 2Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 2nd Phase - 9Campo Muro de Zaro

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Avilés Stadium38%
×Draw30%
Siero32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Avilés Stadium
1.10
Siero
0.97

Avilés Stadium creates 13% more chances

Season form · 80 home / 46 away

creates per match

Avilés Stadium
0.74
Siero
0.74

allows per match

Avilés Stadium
1.20
Siero
1.46

finishing

Avilés Stadium+0.00on par
Siero+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Avilés Stadium ↓

Siero →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Avilés Stadium or draw
68%
Avilés Stadium or Siero
70%
Draw or Siero
62%

Winning margin

Avilés Stadium wins by 2+
16%
Siero wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Avilés Stadium 1+ goals
67%
Avilés Stadium 2+ goals
30%
Avilés Stadium 3+ goals
10%
Siero 1+ goals
62%
Siero 2+ goals
25%
Siero 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Avilés Stadium (draw refunded)
55%
Siero (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Avilés Stadium at home — creates 0.74, concedes 1.20 · 80 matches

Siero away — creates 0.74, concedes 1.46 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Avilés Stadium attack 0.74 + Siero defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.10

Siero attack 0.74 + Avilés Stadium defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Avilés Stadium scores more
38%
level
30%
Siero scores more
32%

Avilés Stadium at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Avilés Stadium will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 2: Avilés Stadium 0–2 Siero

Siero beat Avilés Stadium 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 on May 29, 2021.

The match was played at Campo Muro de Zaro in Avilés.