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Avilés Stadium vs Real Oviedo II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Avilés Stadium
Avilés Stadium
FT
0 – 6
HT: 0 – 1
Real Oviedo II
Real Oviedo II
5/4/2025Tercera División RFEF - Group 2Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 33Campo Muro de Zaro

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Avilés Stadium18%
×Draw26%
Real Oviedo II56%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Avilés Stadium
0.74
Real Oviedo II
1.54

Real Oviedo II creates 108% more chances

Season form · 80 home / 36 away

creates per match

Avilés Stadium
0.74
Real Oviedo II
1.89

allows per match

Avilés Stadium
1.20
Real Oviedo II
0.75

finishing

Avilés Stadium+0.00on par
Real Oviedo II+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Avilés Stadium ↓

Real Oviedo II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–116%
0–212%
0–36%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–03%
2–14%
2–23%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Avilés Stadium or draw
44%
Avilés Stadium or Real Oviedo II
74%
Draw or Real Oviedo II
82%

Winning margin

Avilés Stadium wins by 2+
5%
Real Oviedo II wins by 2+
30%

Team goals

Avilés Stadium 1+ goals
52%
Avilés Stadium 2+ goals
17%
Avilés Stadium 3+ goals
4%
Real Oviedo II 1+ goals
79%
Real Oviedo II 2+ goals
45%
Real Oviedo II 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Avilés Stadium (draw refunded)
24%
Real Oviedo II (draw refunded)
76%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Avilés Stadium at home — creates 0.74, concedes 1.20 · 80 matches

Real Oviedo II away — creates 1.89, concedes 0.75 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Avilés Stadium attack 0.74 + Real Oviedo II defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.74

Real Oviedo II attack 1.89 + Avilés Stadium defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Avilés Stadium scores more
18%
level
26%
Real Oviedo II scores more
56%

Real Oviedo II at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Real Oviedo II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Avilés Stadium 0 – 6 Real Oviedo II

Real Oviedo II beat Avilés Stadium 6-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 on May 4, 2025.

The match was played at Campo Muro de Zaro in Avilés.