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Avilés Stadium vs Covadonga — Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Avilés Stadium
Avilés Stadium
FT
0 – 4
HT: 0 – 2
Covadonga
Covadonga
9/14/2025Tercera División RFEF - Group 2Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 2Campo Muro de Zaro

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 80+ matches

Avilés Stadium21%
×Draw26%
Covadonga52%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Avilés Stadium
0.85
Covadonga
1.50

Covadonga creates 76% more chances

Season form · 80 home / 83 away

creates per match

Avilés Stadium
0.74
Covadonga
1.80

allows per match

Avilés Stadium
1.20
Covadonga
0.96

finishing

Avilés Stadium+0.00on par
Covadonga+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Avilés Stadium ↓

Covadonga →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–114%
0–211%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–03%
2–15%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Avilés Stadium or draw
48%
Avilés Stadium or Covadonga
74%
Draw or Covadonga
79%

Winning margin

Avilés Stadium wins by 2+
7%
Covadonga wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

Avilés Stadium 1+ goals
57%
Avilés Stadium 2+ goals
21%
Avilés Stadium 3+ goals
5%
Covadonga 1+ goals
78%
Covadonga 2+ goals
44%
Covadonga 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Avilés Stadium (draw refunded)
29%
Covadonga (draw refunded)
71%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Avilés Stadium at home — creates 0.74, concedes 1.20 · 80 matches

Covadonga away — creates 1.80, concedes 0.96 · 83 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Avilés Stadium attack 0.74 + Covadonga defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 0.85

Covadonga attack 1.80 + Avilés Stadium defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Avilés Stadium scores more
21%
level
26%
Covadonga scores more
52%

Covadonga at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Covadonga will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 2: Avilés Stadium 0–4 Covadonga

Covadonga beat Avilés Stadium 4-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 on September 14, 2025.

The match was played at Campo Muro de Zaro in Avilés.