Avia Świdnik 1–1 Lublinianka: Result & Stats

Avia Świdnik

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Lublinianka

9/24/2022

III Liga - Group 4 · Group 4 - 9Stadion Świdnik

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Avia Świdnik70%

×Draw16%

Lublinianka14%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Avia ŚwidnikExpected goals in this matchLublinianka

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.90

1.27

Avia Świdnik

2.90

Lublinianka

1.27

Avia Świdnik creates 128% more chances

Season form · 105 home / 16 away

2.24

creates per match

1.56

0.98

allows per match

3.56

creates per match

Avia Świdnik

2.24

Lublinianka

1.56

allows per match

Avia Świdnik

0.98

Lublinianka

3.56

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Avia Świdnik+0.00on par

Lublinianka+0.00on par

Total goals

Over78
Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Avia Świdnik ↓

Lublinianka →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–12%

0–21%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–05%

1–16%

1–24%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–18%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–05%

4–16%

4–24%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

92%8%2.5

78%22%3.5

59%41%4.5

39%61%

Double chance

Avia Świdnik or draw

86%

Avia Świdnik or Lublinianka

84%

Draw or Lublinianka

30%

Winning margin

Avia Świdnik wins by 2+

50%

Lublinianka wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Avia Świdnik 1+ goals

94%

Avia Świdnik 2+ goals

78%

Avia Świdnik 3+ goals

54%

Lublinianka 1+ goals

72%

Lublinianka 2+ goals

36%

Lublinianka 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Avia Świdnik (draw refunded)

83%

Lublinianka (draw refunded)

17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

62%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Avia Świdnik at home — creates 2.24, concedes 0.98 · 105 matches

Lublinianka away — creates 1.56, concedes 3.56 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Avia Świdnik attack 2.24 + Lublinianka defence 3.56 → ÷2 → 2.90

Lublinianka attack 1.56 + Avia Świdnik defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

Avia Świdnik scores more

70%

level

16%

Lublinianka scores more

14%

Avia Świdnik at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Avia Świdnik will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff