Aves vs Vitoria Setubal — Primeira Liga 2018
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 34+ matches
Aves35%
Vitoria Setubal36%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Both teams create about equally
Season form · 34 home / 36 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under61
- Over39
Fewer than 3 goals likely
Both teams score
- No55
- Yes45
One side may not score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Aves ↓
Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Aves at home — creates 0.94, concedes 1.44 · 34 matches
Vitoria Setubal away — creates 0.81, concedes 1.28 · 36 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Aves attack 0.94 + Vitoria Setubal defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.11
Vitoria Setubal attack 0.81 + Aves defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.13
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 36%?"
Vitoria Setubal at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 36% does not mean "Vitoria Setubal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Player of the match
Match Events
Benfica
FC Porto
Sporting CP
SC Braga
Guimaraes
Moreirense
Rio Ave
Boavista
Belenenses
Santa Clara
Portimonense
MaritimoVitoria SetubalAves
Tondela
Chaves
Nacional
FeirenseIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Possession
Shots
Pass accuracy
Statistics
Aves host Vitoria Setubal on Wednesday, 8 July 2020 at 20:15. The match is part of the Primeira Liga 2018/2019 season.
Match Recap: Aves vs Vitoria Setubal
Aves beat Vitoria Setubal 1-0 in Primeira Liga on July 8, 2020.
Goals: M. Mohammadi (4' pen).
Vitoria Setubal controlled possession (59%) and registered 14 shots to 7.
The match was played at Estádio Clube Desportivo das Aves in Vila das Aves.