Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Aves vs Tondela — Primeira Liga 2018

Aves
Aves
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Tondela
Tondela
8/17/2018Primeira LigaPrimeira Liga · Round 2Estádio do CD das Aves

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Aves40%
×Draw26%
Tondela34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Aves
1.39
Tondela
1.25

Aves creates 11% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 85 away

creates per match

Aves
0.94
Tondela
1.00

allows per match

Aves
1.51
Tondela
1.84

finishing

Aves+0.00on par
Tondela+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aves ↓

Tondela →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Aves or draw
66%
Aves or Tondela
74%
Draw or Tondela
60%

Winning margin

Aves wins by 2+
19%
Tondela wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Aves 1+ goals
75%
Aves 2+ goals
40%
Aves 3+ goals
16%
Tondela 1+ goals
71%
Tondela 2+ goals
36%
Tondela 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Aves (draw refunded)
54%
Tondela (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aves at home — creates 0.94, concedes 1.51 · 35 matches

Tondela away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.84 · 85 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aves attack 0.94 + Tondela defence 1.84 → ÷2 → 1.39

Tondela attack 1.00 + Aves defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Aves scores more
40%
level
26%
Tondela scores more
34%

Aves at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Aves will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primeira Liga: Aves 2–2 Tondela

Aves and Tondela drew 2-2 in Primeira Liga on August 17, 2018.

The match was played at Estádio do CD das Aves in Vila das Aves.