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Aves vs Portimonense — Primeira Liga 2018

Aves
Aves
FT
3 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Portimonense
Portimonense
1/18/2020Primeira LigaPrimeira Liga · Round 17Estádio Clube Desportivo das Aves

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Aves40%
×Draw27%
Portimonense33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Aves
1.34
Portimonense
1.19

Aves creates 13% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 103 away

creates per match

Aves
0.94
Portimonense
0.87

allows per match

Aves
1.51
Portimonense
1.74

finishing

Aves+0.00on par
Portimonense+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aves ↓

Portimonense →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Aves or draw
67%
Aves or Portimonense
73%
Draw or Portimonense
60%

Winning margin

Aves wins by 2+
18%
Portimonense wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Aves 1+ goals
74%
Aves 2+ goals
39%
Aves 3+ goals
15%
Portimonense 1+ goals
70%
Portimonense 2+ goals
33%
Portimonense 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Aves (draw refunded)
55%
Portimonense (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aves at home — creates 0.94, concedes 1.51 · 35 matches

Portimonense away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.74 · 103 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aves attack 0.94 + Portimonense defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.34

Portimonense attack 0.87 + Aves defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Aves scores more
40%
level
27%
Portimonense scores more
33%

Aves at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Aves will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primeira Liga: Aves 3–0 Portimonense

Aves beat Portimonense 3-0 in Primeira Liga on January 18, 2020.

The match was played at Estádio Clube Desportivo das Aves in Vila das Aves.