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Aves vs FC Porto — Primeira Liga 2018

Aves
Aves
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
FC Porto
FC Porto
1/3/2019Primeira LigaPrimeira Liga · Round 15Estádio do CD das Aves

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Aves19%
×Draw24%
FC Porto56%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Aves
0.86
FC Porto
1.67

FC Porto creates 94% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 136 away

creates per match

Aves
0.94
FC Porto
1.83

allows per match

Aves
1.51
FC Porto
0.79

finishing

Aves+0.00on par
FC Porto+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aves ↓

FC Porto →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–113%
0–211%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–210%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–03%
2–15%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Aves or draw
44%
Aves or FC Porto
76%
Draw or FC Porto
81%

Winning margin

Aves wins by 2+
6%
FC Porto wins by 2+
31%

Team goals

Aves 1+ goals
58%
Aves 2+ goals
21%
Aves 3+ goals
6%
FC Porto 1+ goals
81%
FC Porto 2+ goals
50%
FC Porto 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Aves (draw refunded)
25%
FC Porto (draw refunded)
75%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aves at home — creates 0.94, concedes 1.51 · 35 matches

FC Porto away — creates 1.83, concedes 0.79 · 136 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aves attack 0.94 + FC Porto defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 0.86

FC Porto attack 1.83 + Aves defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Aves scores more
19%
level
24%
FC Porto scores more
56%

FC Porto at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "FC Porto will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primeira Liga: Aves 0–1 FC Porto

FC Porto beat Aves 1-0 in Primeira Liga on January 3, 2019.

The match was played at Estádio do CD das Aves in Vila das Aves.