Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Avenir Beggen vs UNA Strassen — Cup 2020

Avenir Beggen
Avenir Beggen
FT
2 – 5
UNA Strassen
UNA Strassen
10/3/2021CupCup · 2nd RoundStade rue Henri Dunant

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Avenir Beggen11%
×Draw13%
UNA Strassen76%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Avenir Beggen
1.32
UNA Strassen
3.42

UNA Strassen creates 159% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 13 away

creates per match

Avenir Beggen
1.50
UNA Strassen
4.08

allows per match

Avenir Beggen
2.75
UNA Strassen
1.15

finishing

Avenir Beggen+0.00on par
UNA Strassen+0.00on par

Total goals

84%Over
  • Over84
  • Under16

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Avenir Beggen ↓

UNA Strassen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–13%
0–25%
0–36%
0–45%
1
1–01%
1–14%
1–27%
1–38%
1–47%
2
2–01%
2–13%
2–25%
2–35%
2–45%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–22%
3–32%
3–42%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–3 (8%) · grid covers 78% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
95%5%2.5
84%16%3.5
68%32%4.5
48%52%

Double chance

Avenir Beggen or draw
24%
Avenir Beggen or UNA Strassen
87%
Draw or UNA Strassen
89%

Winning margin

Avenir Beggen wins by 2+
4%
UNA Strassen wins by 2+
57%

Team goals

Avenir Beggen 1+ goals
73%
Avenir Beggen 2+ goals
38%
Avenir Beggen 3+ goals
15%
UNA Strassen 1+ goals
97%
UNA Strassen 2+ goals
85%
UNA Strassen 3+ goals
64%

Draw no bet

Avenir Beggen (draw refunded)
13%
UNA Strassen (draw refunded)
87%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
67%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Avenir Beggen at home — creates 1.50, concedes 2.75 · 4 matches

UNA Strassen away — creates 4.08, concedes 1.15 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Avenir Beggen attack 1.50 + UNA Strassen defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.32

UNA Strassen attack 4.08 + Avenir Beggen defence 2.75 → ÷2 → 3.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 76%?"

Avenir Beggen scores more
11%
level
13%
UNA Strassen scores more
76%

UNA Strassen at 76% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 76% does not mean "UNA Strassen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Avenir Beggen vs UNA Strassen

UNA Strassen beat Avenir Beggen 5-2 in Cup on October 3, 2021.

The match was played at Stade rue Henri Dunant in Luxembourg.