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Avenir Beggen vs Jeunesse Useldange — Cup 2020

Avenir Beggen
Avenir Beggen
AET
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Jeunesse Useldange
Jeunesse Useldange
9/9/2020CupCup · 1st RoundStade rue Henri Dunant

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Avenir Beggen21%
×Draw17%
Jeunesse Useldange63%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Avenir Beggen
1.75
Jeunesse Useldange
3.04

Jeunesse Useldange creates 74% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 3 away

creates per match

Avenir Beggen
1.50
Jeunesse Useldange
3.33

allows per match

Avenir Beggen
2.75
Jeunesse Useldange
2.00

finishing

Avenir Beggen+0.00on par
Jeunesse Useldange+0.00on par

Total goals

85%Over
  • Over85
  • Under15

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

78%Yes
  • Yes78
  • No22

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Avenir Beggen ↓

Jeunesse Useldange →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–13%
0–24%
0–34%
0–43%
1
1–02%
1–15%
1–27%
1–37%
1–45%
2
2–01%
2–14%
2–26%
2–36%
2–45%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–24%
3–34%
3–43%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–22%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (7%) · grid covers 81% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
95%5%2.5
85%15%3.5
69%31%4.5
50%50%

Double chance

Avenir Beggen or draw
37%
Avenir Beggen or Jeunesse Useldange
83%
Draw or Jeunesse Useldange
79%

Winning margin

Avenir Beggen wins by 2+
10%
Jeunesse Useldange wins by 2+
43%

Team goals

Avenir Beggen 1+ goals
83%
Avenir Beggen 2+ goals
52%
Avenir Beggen 3+ goals
25%
Jeunesse Useldange 1+ goals
95%
Jeunesse Useldange 2+ goals
80%
Jeunesse Useldange 3+ goals
57%

Draw no bet

Avenir Beggen (draw refunded)
25%
Jeunesse Useldange (draw refunded)
75%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
74%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Avenir Beggen at home — creates 1.50, concedes 2.75 · 4 matches

Jeunesse Useldange away — creates 3.33, concedes 2.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Avenir Beggen attack 1.50 + Jeunesse Useldange defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.75

Jeunesse Useldange attack 3.33 + Avenir Beggen defence 2.75 → ÷2 → 3.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Avenir Beggen scores more
21%
level
17%
Jeunesse Useldange scores more
63%

Jeunesse Useldange at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Jeunesse Useldange will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Avenir Beggen vs Jeunesse Useldange

Avenir Beggen and Jeunesse Useldange drew 0-0 in Cup on September 9, 2020.

The match was played at Stade rue Henri Dunant in Luxembourg.