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Avenir Beggen vs Jeunesse Canach — Cup 2020

Avenir Beggen
Avenir Beggen
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Jeunesse Canach
Jeunesse Canach
10/2/2022CupCup · 2nd RoundTerrain 2 Beggen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Avenir Beggen19%
×Draw17%
Jeunesse Canach64%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Avenir Beggen
1.42
Jeunesse Canach
2.71

Jeunesse Canach creates 91% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 6 away

creates per match

Avenir Beggen
1.50
Jeunesse Canach
2.67

allows per match

Avenir Beggen
2.75
Jeunesse Canach
1.33

finishing

Avenir Beggen+0.00on par
Jeunesse Canach+0.00on par

Total goals

78%Over
  • Over78
  • Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Avenir Beggen ↓

Jeunesse Canach →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–26%
0–35%
0–44%
1
1–02%
1–16%
1–29%
1–38%
1–45%
2
2–02%
2–14%
2–26%
2–35%
2–44%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–23%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
92%8%2.5
78%22%3.5
58%42%4.5
38%62%

Double chance

Avenir Beggen or draw
36%
Avenir Beggen or Jeunesse Canach
83%
Draw or Jeunesse Canach
81%

Winning margin

Avenir Beggen wins by 2+
8%
Jeunesse Canach wins by 2+
43%

Team goals

Avenir Beggen 1+ goals
76%
Avenir Beggen 2+ goals
41%
Avenir Beggen 3+ goals
17%
Jeunesse Canach 1+ goals
93%
Jeunesse Canach 2+ goals
75%
Jeunesse Canach 3+ goals
50%

Draw no bet

Avenir Beggen (draw refunded)
22%
Jeunesse Canach (draw refunded)
78%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
64%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Avenir Beggen at home — creates 1.50, concedes 2.75 · 4 matches

Jeunesse Canach away — creates 2.67, concedes 1.33 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Avenir Beggen attack 1.50 + Jeunesse Canach defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.42

Jeunesse Canach attack 2.67 + Avenir Beggen defence 2.75 → ÷2 → 2.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Avenir Beggen scores more
19%
level
17%
Jeunesse Canach scores more
64%

Jeunesse Canach at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Jeunesse Canach will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cup: Avenir Beggen 2–0 Jeunesse Canach

Avenir Beggen beat Jeunesse Canach 2-0 in Cup on October 2, 2022.

The match was played at Terrain 2 Beggen in Luxembourg.