Avenida 1–0 Maringá: Result & Stats | Serie D

Avenida

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Maringá

Flávio Torres 38'

6/9/2019

Serie D · Round 6Estádio dos Eucaliptos (Santa Cruz do Sul, Rio Grande do Sul)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Avenida40%

×Draw33%

Maringá27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AvenidaExpected goals in this matchMaringá

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.02

0.78

Avenida

1.02

Maringá

0.78

Avenida creates 31% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 27 away

1.09

creates per match

1.11

0.45

allows per match

0.96

creates per match

Avenida

1.09

Maringá

1.11

allows per match

Avenida

0.45

Maringá

0.96

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Avenida+0.00on par

Maringá+0.00on par

Total goals

Under73
Over27

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No65
Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Avenida ↓

Maringá →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–017%

0–113%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

83%17%1.5

54%46%2.5

27%73%3.5

11%89%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Avenida or draw

73%

Avenida or Maringá

67%

Draw or Maringá

60%

Winning margin

Avenida wins by 2+

16%

Maringá wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Avenida 1+ goals

64%

Avenida 2+ goals

27%

Avenida 3+ goals

8%

Maringá 1+ goals

54%

Maringá 2+ goals

18%

Maringá 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Avenida (draw refunded)

60%

Maringá (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

21%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Avenida at home — creates 1.09, concedes 0.45 · 11 matches

Maringá away — creates 1.11, concedes 0.96 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Avenida attack 1.09 + Maringá defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.02

Maringá attack 1.11 + Avenida defence 0.45 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Avenida scores more

40%

level

33%

Maringá scores more

27%

Avenida at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Avenida will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

5'

Romarinho← André Mensalão

38'

Flávio Torres

46'

Léo Bartholo← Romeu

71'

Everton← Welton Paraguá

79'

Jô← Davi Lopes

81'

Tito← Elias

90'

Márcio Duarte← Alexandre

Avenida

Maringá

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Manager: China Balbino

79'▲Jô←▼Davi Lopes

81'▲Tito←▼Elias

90'▲Márcio Duarte←▼Alexandre

Avenida substitutes

JôTitoDuarteAndersonFelipeMatheus

Manager: Sandro Forner

5'▲Romarinho←▼André Mensalão

46'▲Léo Bartholo←▼Romeu

71'▲Everton←▼Welton Paraguá

Maringá substitutes

RomarinhoBartholoEvertonSilvaErwinRobertoPregoNemOrobó