Avellino 1–1 Venezia: Result & Stats | Serie B

Avellino

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Venezia

F. Missori 41'

M. Svoboda 51'

12/8/2025

Serie B · Round 15Stadio Partenio-Adriano Lombardi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 10+ matches

Avellino25%

×Draw24%

Venezia51%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AvellinoExpected goals in this matchVenezia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.13

1.73

Avellino

1.13

Venezia

1.73

Venezia creates 53% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 10 away

1.36

creates per match

2.03

1.44

allows per match

0.90

creates per match

Avellino

1.36

Venezia

2.03

allows per match

Avellino

1.44

Venezia

0.90

-0.09on par

finishing

-0.03on par

finishing

Avellino-0.09on par

Venezia-0.03on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Avellino ↓

Venezia →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–110%

0–29%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–210%

1–36%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–16%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Avellino or draw

49%

Avellino or Venezia

76%

Draw or Venezia

75%

Winning margin

Avellino wins by 2+

10%

Venezia wins by 2+

28%

Team goals

Avellino 1+ goals

68%

Avellino 2+ goals

31%

Avellino 3+ goals

11%

Venezia 1+ goals

82%

Venezia 2+ goals

52%

Venezia 3+ goals

25%

Draw no bet

Avellino (draw refunded)

33%

Venezia (draw refunded)

67%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Avellino at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.44 · 11 matches

Venezia away — creates 2.03, concedes 0.90 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Avellino attack 1.36 + Venezia defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 1.13

Venezia attack 2.03 + Avellino defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Avellino scores more

25%

level

24%

Venezia scores more

51%

Venezia at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Venezia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

30

G. Daffara

Avellino · G

8.2

Match Events

23'

John Yeboah

41'

F. Missori↳ D. Sounas

46'

R. Russo← T. Biasci

46'

M. Compagnon← B. Bjarkason

51'

M. Svoboda↳ J. Yeboah

59'

T. Cancellotti← L. Palmiero

73'

M. Besaggio← D. Sounas

73'

C. Patierno← G. Tutino

73'

R. Haps← A. Sidibe

73'

D. Fila← A. Adorante

86'

R. Sagrado← I. Doumbia

89'

90+5'

90+5'

90+5'

90+4'

Ridgeciano HapsGoal cancelled

90+2'

A. Casas← J. Yeboah

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AvellinoVenezia

Overview

28%Possession72%

2Total Shots26

0.21Expected Goals (xG)3.79

2Corners10

15Fouls21

Shots

2Total Shots26

2On Target10

0Off Target8

0Blocked8

2Inside Box20

0Outside Box6

Passing

28%Possession72%

231Total Passes568

158Accurate Passes509

68%Pass Accuracy90%

Goalkeeping

9Saves1

Discipline

15Fouls21

1Yellow Cards3

2Offsides1