Avellino 4–3 Reggiana: Result & Stats | Serie B

Avellino

FT

4 – 3

HT: 1 – 1

Reggiana

M. Palumbo 70'

L. Simic 64'

T. Biasci 50'

R. Insigne 32' (pen)

A. Novakovich 62', 55'

L. Simic 21' (OG)

11/1/2025

Serie B · Round 11Stadio Partenio-Adriano Lombardi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Avellino37%

×Draw26%

Reggiana37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AvellinoExpected goals in this matchReggiana

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.32

1.33

Avellino

1.32

Reggiana

1.33

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 11 home / 7 away

1.36

creates per match

1.23

1.44

allows per match

1.28

creates per match

Avellino

1.36

Reggiana

1.23

allows per match

Avellino

1.44

Reggiana

1.28

-0.09on par

finishing

-0.66scores less than expected

finishing

Avellino-0.09on par

Reggiana-0.66scores less

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Avellino ↓

Reggiana →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Avellino or draw

63%

Avellino or Reggiana

74%

Draw or Reggiana

63%

Winning margin

Avellino wins by 2+

16%

Reggiana wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Avellino 1+ goals

73%

Avellino 2+ goals

38%

Avellino 3+ goals

15%

Reggiana 1+ goals

74%

Reggiana 2+ goals

38%

Reggiana 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Avellino (draw refunded)

50%

Reggiana (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Avellino at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.44 · 11 matches

Reggiana away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.28 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Avellino attack 1.36 + Reggiana defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.32

Reggiana attack 1.23 + Avellino defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Avellino scores more

37%

level

26%

Reggiana scores more

37%

Avellino at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Avellino will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9

A. Novakovich

Reggiana · F

8.5

Match Events

21'

L. SimicOwn goal

25'

Tommaso Biasci

25'

Andrea Papetti

30'

Valerio CrespiPenalty confirmed

32'

R. InsignePenalty

46'

R. Russo← V. Crespi

47'

Luca Palmiero

50'

T. Biasci↳ R. Insigne

55'

J. Kumi← L. Palmiero

55'

A. Novakovich

57'

Alessandro Milani

62'

A. Novakovich↳ M. Bertagnoli

64'

A. Cagnano← A. Milani

64'

G. Tutino← T. Biasci

64'

L. Simic↳ R. Russo

67'

Manolo Portanova

69'

M. Lambourde← E. Tavsan

70'

M. Palumbo↳ M. Besaggio

78'

L. Stulac← M. Bertagnoli

78'

C. Gondo← A. Novakovich

82'

D. Sounas← M. Palumbo

82'

M. Rover← A. Bozzolan

86'

Filippo Missori

90+3'

Cedric Gondo

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AvellinoReggiana

Overview

53%Possession47%

13Total Shots14

4Corners4

15Fouls21

Shots

13Total Shots14

5On Target4

2Off Target7

6Blocked3

8Inside Box9

5Outside Box5

Passing

53%Possession47%

370Total Passes329

300Accurate Passes266

81%Pass Accuracy81%

Goalkeeping

2Saves1

Discipline

15Fouls21

4Yellow Cards3

4Offsides2