Avellino 1–2 Bari: Result & Stats | Serie B

Avellino

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Bari

A. Vajushi 31'

K. Cissé 90+1'

Nenê 64'

4/2/2018

Serie B · Round 29Partenio-Adriano Lombardi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Avellino55%

×Draw24%

Bari21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AvellinoExpected goals in this matchBari

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.70

0.93

Avellino

1.70

Bari

0.93

Avellino creates 83% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 14 away

1.53

creates per match

0.72

1.15

allows per match

1.86

creates per match

Avellino

1.53

Bari

0.72

allows per match

Avellino

1.15

Bari

1.86

-0.24scores less than expected

finishing

+0.07on par

finishing

Avellino-0.24scores less

Bari+0.07on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Avellino ↓

Bari →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–111%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Avellino or draw

79%

Avellino or Bari

76%

Draw or Bari

45%

Winning margin

Avellino wins by 2+

31%

Bari wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Avellino 1+ goals

82%

Avellino 2+ goals

51%

Avellino 3+ goals

24%

Bari 1+ goals

61%

Bari 2+ goals

24%

Bari 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Avellino (draw refunded)

73%

Bari (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Avellino at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.15 · 7 matches

Bari away — creates 0.72, concedes 1.86 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Avellino attack 1.53 + Bari defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.70

Bari attack 0.72 + Avellino defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Avellino scores more

55%

level

24%

Bari scores more

21%

Avellino at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Avellino will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

31'

A. Vajushi↳ A. Krešić

37'

Federico Moretti

58'

L. Castaldo← M. Ardemagni

62'

L. Laverone← A. Vajushi

64'

Nenê↳ S. Iocolano

72'

A. Tello← S. Iocolano

75'

A. Floro Flores← Nenê

81'

L. Morosini← B. Cabezas

86'

88'

89'

90'

90'

90'

90+1'

Possession

Shots

Statistics

AvellinoBari

Overview

42%Possession58%

3Total Shots19

4Corners5

19Fouls14

Shots

3Total Shots19

1On Target7

2Off Target12

Passing

42%Possession58%

Goalkeeping

5Saves0

Discipline

19Fouls14

4Yellow Cards2

0Red Cards0

4Offsides3

Serie B: Avellino 1–2 Bari

Bari beat Avellino 2-1 in Serie B on April 2, 2018.

Goals: A. Vajushi (31'), Nenê (64'), K. Cissé (90+1').

Bari controlled possession (58%) and registered 19 shots to 3.

The match was played at Partenio-Adriano Lombardi in Avellino.

Avellino vs Bari — Serie B 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Statistics

Serie B: Avellino 1–2 Bari