Avellino U19 3–0 Ternana U19: Result & Stats

Avellino U19

FT

3 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Ternana U19

4/5/2025

Campionato Primavera - 2 · Group B - 25Stadio Partenio-Adriano Lombardi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Avellino U1956%

×Draw22%

Ternana U1922%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Avellino U19Expected goals in this matchTernana U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.00

1.19

Avellino U19

2.00

Ternana U19

1.19

Avellino U19 creates 68% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 72 away

2.10

creates per match

0.94

1.43

allows per match

1.90

creates per match

Avellino U19

2.10

Ternana U19

0.94

allows per match

Avellino U19

1.43

Ternana U19

1.90

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Avellino U19+0.00on par

Ternana U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Avellino U19 ↓

Ternana U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Avellino U19 or draw

78%

Avellino U19 or Ternana U19

78%

Draw or Ternana U19

44%

Winning margin

Avellino U19 wins by 2+

33%

Ternana U19 wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Avellino U19 1+ goals

86%

Avellino U19 2+ goals

59%

Avellino U19 3+ goals

32%

Ternana U19 1+ goals

70%

Ternana U19 2+ goals

33%

Ternana U19 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Avellino U19 (draw refunded)

71%

Ternana U19 (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Avellino U19 at home — creates 2.10, concedes 1.43 · 30 matches

Ternana U19 away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.90 · 72 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Avellino U19 attack 2.10 + Ternana U19 defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 2.00

Ternana U19 attack 0.94 + Avellino U19 defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Avellino U19 scores more

56%

level

22%

Ternana U19 scores more

22%

Avellino U19 at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Avellino U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff