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Avellino U19 vs Pescara U19 — Campionato Primavera - 2 2020

Avellino U19
Avellino U19
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Pescara U19
Pescara U19
3/8/2025Campionato Primavera - 2Campionato Primavera - 2 · Group B - 22Stadio Partenio-Adriano Lombardi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Avellino U1945%
×Draw22%
Pescara U1932%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Avellino U19
1.91
Pescara U19
1.59

Avellino U19 creates 20% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 72 away

creates per match

Avellino U19
2.10
Pescara U19
1.75

allows per match

Avellino U19
1.43
Pescara U19
1.71

finishing

Avellino U19+0.00on par
Pescara U19+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Avellino U19 ↓

Pescara U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Avellino U19 or draw
68%
Avellino U19 or Pescara U19
78%
Draw or Pescara U19
55%

Winning margin

Avellino U19 wins by 2+
25%
Pescara U19 wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Avellino U19 1+ goals
85%
Avellino U19 2+ goals
57%
Avellino U19 3+ goals
30%
Pescara U19 1+ goals
80%
Pescara U19 2+ goals
47%
Pescara U19 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Avellino U19 (draw refunded)
58%
Pescara U19 (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Avellino U19 at home — creates 2.10, concedes 1.43 · 30 matches

Pescara U19 away — creates 1.75, concedes 1.71 · 72 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Avellino U19 attack 2.10 + Pescara U19 defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.91

Pescara U19 attack 1.75 + Avellino U19 defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Avellino U19 scores more
45%
level
22%
Pescara U19 scores more
32%

Avellino U19 at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Avellino U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Campionato Primavera - 2: Avellino U19 0–0 Pescara U19

Avellino U19 and Pescara U19 drew 0-0 in Campionato Primavera - 2 on March 8, 2025.

The match was played at Stadio Partenio-Adriano Lombardi in Avellino.