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Avellino U19 vs Monopoli U19 — Campionato Primavera - 2 2020

Avellino U19
Avellino U19
FT
3 – 1
HT: 3 – 0
Monopoli U19
Monopoli U19
9/22/2024Campionato Primavera - 2Campionato Primavera - 2 · Group B - 2Stadio Partenio-Adriano Lombardi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Avellino U1957%
×Draw21%
Monopoli U1922%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Avellino U19
2.13
Monopoli U19
1.27

Avellino U19 creates 68% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 61 away

creates per match

Avellino U19
2.10
Monopoli U19
1.11

allows per match

Avellino U19
1.43
Monopoli U19
2.15

finishing

Avellino U19+0.00on par
Monopoli U19+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Avellino U19 ↓

Monopoli U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Avellino U19 or draw
78%
Avellino U19 or Monopoli U19
79%
Draw or Monopoli U19
43%

Winning margin

Avellino U19 wins by 2+
35%
Monopoli U19 wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Avellino U19 1+ goals
88%
Avellino U19 2+ goals
63%
Avellino U19 3+ goals
35%
Monopoli U19 1+ goals
72%
Monopoli U19 2+ goals
36%
Monopoli U19 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Avellino U19 (draw refunded)
72%
Monopoli U19 (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Avellino U19 at home — creates 2.10, concedes 1.43 · 30 matches

Monopoli U19 away — creates 1.11, concedes 2.15 · 61 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Avellino U19 attack 2.10 + Monopoli U19 defence 2.15 → ÷2 → 2.13

Monopoli U19 attack 1.11 + Avellino U19 defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Avellino U19 scores more
57%
level
21%
Monopoli U19 scores more
22%

Avellino U19 at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Avellino U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Avellino U19 vs Monopoli U19

Avellino U19 beat Monopoli U19 3-1 in Campionato Primavera - 2 on September 22, 2024.

The match was played at Stadio Partenio-Adriano Lombardi in Avellino.