Avellino U19 1–1 Ascoli U19: Result & Stats

Avellino U19

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Ascoli U19

11/29/2025

Campionato Primavera - 2 · Group B - 10

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Avellino U1947%

×Draw23%

Ascoli U1931%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Avellino U19Expected goals in this matchAscoli U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.84

1.46

Avellino U19

1.84

Ascoli U19

1.46

Avellino U19 creates 26% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 73 away

2.10

creates per match

1.48

1.43

allows per match

1.58

creates per match

Avellino U19

2.10

Ascoli U19

1.48

allows per match

Avellino U19

1.43

Ascoli U19

1.58

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Avellino U19+0.00on par

Ascoli U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Avellino U19 ↓

Ascoli U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–27%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

42%58%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Avellino U19 or draw

69%

Avellino U19 or Ascoli U19

77%

Draw or Ascoli U19

53%

Winning margin

Avellino U19 wins by 2+

25%

Ascoli U19 wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Avellino U19 1+ goals

84%

Avellino U19 2+ goals

55%

Avellino U19 3+ goals

28%

Ascoli U19 1+ goals

77%

Ascoli U19 2+ goals

43%

Ascoli U19 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Avellino U19 (draw refunded)

60%

Ascoli U19 (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Avellino U19 at home — creates 2.10, concedes 1.43 · 30 matches

Ascoli U19 away — creates 1.48, concedes 1.58 · 73 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Avellino U19 attack 2.10 + Ascoli U19 defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.84

Ascoli U19 attack 1.48 + Avellino U19 defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Avellino U19 scores more

47%

level

23%

Ascoli U19 scores more

31%

Avellino U19 at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Avellino U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff