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Aveley vs Ebbsfleet United — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Aveley
Aveley
FT
1 – 4
Ebbsfleet United
Ebbsfleet United
T. Aromolaran 75'
F. Barnes 74', 55'
O. Box 43'
R. Nelson 18'
7/14/2026Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Aveley31%
×Draw19%
Ebbsfleet United50%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Aveley
2.02
Ebbsfleet United
2.60

Ebbsfleet United creates 29% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 5 away

creates per match

Aveley
2.25
Ebbsfleet United
2.20

allows per match

Aveley
3.00
Ebbsfleet United
1.80

finishing

Aveley+0.00on par
Ebbsfleet United+0.00on par

Total goals

84%Over
  • Over84
  • Under16

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

80%Yes
  • Yes80
  • No20

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aveley ↓

Ebbsfleet United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–13%
0–23%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–02%
1–15%
1–27%
1–36%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–27%
2–36%
2–44%
3
3–01%
3–14%
3–25%
3–34%
3–43%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (7%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
94%6%2.5
84%16%3.5
67%33%4.5
48%52%

Double chance

Aveley or draw
50%
Aveley or Ebbsfleet United
81%
Draw or Ebbsfleet United
69%

Winning margin

Aveley wins by 2+
16%
Ebbsfleet United wins by 2+
32%

Team goals

Aveley 1+ goals
87%
Aveley 2+ goals
60%
Aveley 3+ goals
33%
Ebbsfleet United 1+ goals
92%
Ebbsfleet United 2+ goals
73%
Ebbsfleet United 3+ goals
47%

Draw no bet

Aveley (draw refunded)
38%
Ebbsfleet United (draw refunded)
62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
75%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aveley at home — creates 2.25, concedes 3.00 · 4 matches

Ebbsfleet United away — creates 2.20, concedes 1.80 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aveley attack 2.25 + Ebbsfleet United defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 2.02

Ebbsfleet United attack 2.20 + Aveley defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Aveley scores more
31%
level
19%
Ebbsfleet United scores more
50%

Ebbsfleet United at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Ebbsfleet United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

18'
R. Nelson
43'
O. Box
55'
F. Barnes
74'
F. Barnes
75'
T. Aromolaran

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Friendlies Clubs: Aveley 1–4 Ebbsfleet United

Ebbsfleet United beat Aveley 4-1 in Friendlies Clubs on July 14, 2026.

Goals: R. Nelson (18'), O. Box (43'), F. Barnes (55', 74'), T. Aromolaran (75').