Avarta 1–0 Vejgaard B: Result & Stats | 3. Division

Avarta

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Vejgaard B

11/12/2023

3. Division · Round 15Tømrermester Jim Jensens Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Avarta42%

×Draw25%

Vejgaard B33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AvartaExpected goals in this matchVejgaard B

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.53

1.33

Avarta

1.53

Vejgaard B

1.33

Avarta creates 15% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 32 away

1.09

creates per match

1.25

1.41

allows per match

1.97

creates per match

Avarta

1.09

Vejgaard B

1.25

allows per match

Avarta

1.41

Vejgaard B

1.97

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Avarta+0.00on par

Vejgaard B+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Avarta ↓

Vejgaard B →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Avarta or draw

67%

Avarta or Vejgaard B

75%

Draw or Vejgaard B

58%

Winning margin

Avarta wins by 2+

21%

Vejgaard B wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Avarta 1+ goals

78%

Avarta 2+ goals

45%

Avarta 3+ goals

20%

Vejgaard B 1+ goals

74%

Vejgaard B 2+ goals

38%

Vejgaard B 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Avarta (draw refunded)

56%

Vejgaard B (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Avarta at home — creates 1.09, concedes 1.41 · 32 matches

Vejgaard B away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.97 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Avarta attack 1.09 + Vejgaard B defence 1.97 → ÷2 → 1.53

Vejgaard B attack 1.25 + Avarta defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Avarta scores more

42%

level

25%

Vejgaard B scores more

33%

Avarta at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Avarta will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff