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Avarta vs Skovshoved — 2nd Division - Group 1 2018

Avarta
Avarta
FT
2 – 1
Skovshoved
Skovshoved
10/27/20192nd Division - Group 12nd Division - Group 1 · Group 1 - 14Espelundens Idrætsanlæg

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Avarta52%
×Draw24%
Skovshoved24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Avarta
1.72
Skovshoved
1.09

Avarta creates 58% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 11 away

creates per match

Avarta
1.17
Skovshoved
1.36

allows per match

Avarta
0.83
Skovshoved
2.27

finishing

Avarta+0.00on par
Skovshoved+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Avarta ↓

Skovshoved →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Avarta or draw
76%
Avarta or Skovshoved
76%
Draw or Skovshoved
48%

Winning margin

Avarta wins by 2+
28%
Skovshoved wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Avarta 1+ goals
82%
Avarta 2+ goals
51%
Avarta 3+ goals
25%
Skovshoved 1+ goals
66%
Skovshoved 2+ goals
30%
Skovshoved 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Avarta (draw refunded)
68%
Skovshoved (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Avarta at home — creates 1.17, concedes 0.83 · 12 matches

Skovshoved away — creates 1.36, concedes 2.27 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Avarta attack 1.17 + Skovshoved defence 2.27 → ÷2 → 1.72

Skovshoved attack 1.36 + Avarta defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Avarta scores more
52%
level
24%
Skovshoved scores more
24%

Avarta at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Avarta will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Avarta vs Skovshoved

Avarta beat Skovshoved 2-1 in 2nd Division - Group 1 on October 27, 2019.

The match was played at Espelundens Idrætsanlæg in Rødovre.