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Avarta vs Silkeborg KFUM — 3. Division 2021

Avarta
Avarta
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Silkeborg KFUM
Silkeborg KFUM
11/18/20233. Division3. Division · Round 16Tømrermester Jim Jensens Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Avarta33%
×Draw26%
Silkeborg KFUM41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Avarta
1.28
Silkeborg KFUM
1.46

Silkeborg KFUM creates 14% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 64 away

creates per match

Avarta
1.09
Silkeborg KFUM
1.50

allows per match

Avarta
1.41
Silkeborg KFUM
1.47

finishing

Avarta+0.00on par
Silkeborg KFUM+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Avarta ↓

Silkeborg KFUM →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Avarta or draw
59%
Avarta or Silkeborg KFUM
74%
Draw or Silkeborg KFUM
67%

Winning margin

Avarta wins by 2+
14%
Silkeborg KFUM wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Avarta 1+ goals
72%
Avarta 2+ goals
37%
Avarta 3+ goals
14%
Silkeborg KFUM 1+ goals
77%
Silkeborg KFUM 2+ goals
43%
Silkeborg KFUM 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Avarta (draw refunded)
44%
Silkeborg KFUM (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Avarta at home — creates 1.09, concedes 1.41 · 32 matches

Silkeborg KFUM away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.47 · 64 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Avarta attack 1.09 + Silkeborg KFUM defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.28

Silkeborg KFUM attack 1.50 + Avarta defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Avarta scores more
33%
level
26%
Silkeborg KFUM scores more
41%

Silkeborg KFUM at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Silkeborg KFUM will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Avarta vs Silkeborg KFUM

Avarta beat Silkeborg KFUM 1-0 in 3. Division on November 18, 2023.

The match was played at Tømrermester Jim Jensens Park in Rødovre.