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Avarta vs Holbæk B&I — 3. Division 2021

Avarta
Avarta
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Holbæk B&I
Holbæk B&I
8/4/20243. Division3. Division · Round 1Tømrermester Jim Jensens Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Avarta30%
×Draw26%
Holbæk B&I43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Avarta
1.14
Holbæk B&I
1.42

Holbæk B&I creates 25% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 48 away

creates per match

Avarta
1.09
Holbæk B&I
1.44

allows per match

Avarta
1.41
Holbæk B&I
1.19

finishing

Avarta+0.00on par
Holbæk B&I+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Avarta ↓

Holbæk B&I →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–111%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Avarta or draw
57%
Avarta or Holbæk B&I
74%
Draw or Holbæk B&I
70%

Winning margin

Avarta wins by 2+
12%
Holbæk B&I wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Avarta 1+ goals
68%
Avarta 2+ goals
32%
Avarta 3+ goals
11%
Holbæk B&I 1+ goals
76%
Holbæk B&I 2+ goals
41%
Holbæk B&I 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Avarta (draw refunded)
41%
Holbæk B&I (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Avarta at home — creates 1.09, concedes 1.41 · 32 matches

Holbæk B&I away — creates 1.44, concedes 1.19 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Avarta attack 1.09 + Holbæk B&I defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.14

Holbæk B&I attack 1.44 + Avarta defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Avarta scores more
30%
level
26%
Holbæk B&I scores more
43%

Holbæk B&I at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Holbæk B&I will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Avarta vs Holbæk B&I

Avarta beat Holbæk B&I 1-0 in 3. Division on August 4, 2024.

The match was played at Tømrermester Jim Jensens Park in Rødovre.