Avarta 0–3 Hillerød: Result & Stats

Avarta

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 2

Hillerød

1/13/2024

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Tømrermester Jim Jensens Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Avarta23%

×Draw22%

Hillerød55%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AvartaExpected goals in this matchHillerød

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.15

1.91

Avarta

1.15

Hillerød

1.91

Hillerød creates 66% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 13 away

0.75

creates per match

1.31

2.50

allows per match

1.54

creates per match

Avarta

0.75

Hillerød

1.31

allows per match

Avarta

2.50

Hillerød

1.54

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Avarta+0.00on par

Hillerød+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Avarta ↓

Hillerød →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–19%

0–29%

0–35%

0–43%

1

1–05%

1–110%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Avarta or draw

45%

Avarta or Hillerød

78%

Draw or Hillerød

77%

Winning margin

Avarta wins by 2+

9%

Hillerød wins by 2+

32%

Team goals

Avarta 1+ goals

68%

Avarta 2+ goals

32%

Avarta 3+ goals

11%

Hillerød 1+ goals

85%

Hillerød 2+ goals

57%

Hillerød 3+ goals

30%

Draw no bet

Avarta (draw refunded)

29%

Hillerød (draw refunded)

71%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Avarta at home — creates 0.75, concedes 2.50 · 4 matches

Hillerød away — creates 1.31, concedes 1.54 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Avarta attack 0.75 + Hillerød defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.15

Hillerød attack 1.31 + Avarta defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 1.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Avarta scores more

23%

level

22%

Hillerød scores more

55%

Hillerød at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Hillerød will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff