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Avarta vs HIK — 2nd Division - Group 1 2018

Avarta
Avarta
FT
3 – 0
HIK
HIK
8/14/20162nd Division - Group 12nd Division - Group 1 · Round 2Espelundens Idrætsanlæg

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Avarta48%
×Draw26%
HIK26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Avarta
1.46
HIK
0.99

Avarta creates 47% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 86 away

creates per match

Avarta
1.07
HIK
1.13

allows per match

Avarta
0.86
HIK
1.85

finishing

Avarta+0.00on par
HIK+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Avarta ↓

HIK →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Avarta or draw
74%
Avarta or HIK
74%
Draw or HIK
52%

Winning margin

Avarta wins by 2+
24%
HIK wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Avarta 1+ goals
77%
Avarta 2+ goals
43%
Avarta 3+ goals
18%
HIK 1+ goals
63%
HIK 2+ goals
26%
HIK 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Avarta (draw refunded)
65%
HIK (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Avarta at home — creates 1.07, concedes 0.86 · 14 matches

HIK away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.85 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Avarta attack 1.07 + HIK defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.46

HIK attack 1.13 + Avarta defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Avarta scores more
48%
level
26%
HIK scores more
26%

Avarta at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Avarta will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

2nd Division - Group 1: Avarta 3–0 HIK

Avarta beat HIK 3-0 in 2nd Division - Group 1 on August 14, 2016.

The match was played at Espelundens Idrætsanlæg in Rødovre.