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Avarta vs FC Helsingor — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Avarta
Avarta
FT
1 – 4
FC Helsingor
FC Helsingor
2/27/2020Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Tømrermester Jim Jensens Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Avarta23%
×Draw19%
FC Helsingor58%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Avarta
1.45
FC Helsingor
2.40

FC Helsingor creates 66% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 7 away

creates per match

Avarta
0.75
FC Helsingor
2.29

allows per match

Avarta
2.50
FC Helsingor
2.14

finishing

Avarta+0.00on par
FC Helsingor+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Avarta ↓

FC Helsingor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–26%
0–35%
0–43%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–29%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–23%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
53%47%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

Avarta or draw
42%
Avarta or FC Helsingor
81%
Draw or FC Helsingor
77%

Winning margin

Avarta wins by 2+
10%
FC Helsingor wins by 2+
37%

Team goals

Avarta 1+ goals
77%
Avarta 2+ goals
42%
Avarta 3+ goals
18%
FC Helsingor 1+ goals
91%
FC Helsingor 2+ goals
69%
FC Helsingor 3+ goals
42%

Draw no bet

Avarta (draw refunded)
28%
FC Helsingor (draw refunded)
72%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Avarta at home — creates 0.75, concedes 2.50 · 4 matches

FC Helsingor away — creates 2.29, concedes 2.14 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Avarta attack 0.75 + FC Helsingor defence 2.14 → ÷2 → 1.45

FC Helsingor attack 2.29 + Avarta defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 2.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Avarta scores more
23%
level
19%
FC Helsingor scores more
58%

FC Helsingor at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "FC Helsingor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Friendlies Clubs: Avarta 1–4 FC Helsingor

FC Helsingor beat Avarta 4-1 in Friendlies Clubs on February 27, 2020.

The match was played at Tømrermester Jim Jensens Park in Rødovre.