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Avarta vs B 93 — 2nd Division - Group 1 2018

Avarta
Avarta
FT
1 – 1
B 93
B 93
M. Cordua 30'
D. Stuckler 49'
3/8/20202nd Division - Group 12nd Division - Group 1 · Group 1 - 17Espelundens Idrætsanlæg

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Avarta37%
×Draw27%
B 9336%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Avarta
1.28
B 93
1.27

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 11 home / 49 away

creates per match

Avarta
1.27
B 93
1.73

allows per match

Avarta
0.82
B 93
1.29

finishing

Avarta+0.00on par
B 93+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Avarta ↓

B 93 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Avarta or draw
64%
Avarta or B 93
73%
Draw or B 93
63%

Winning margin

Avarta wins by 2+
16%
B 93 wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Avarta 1+ goals
72%
Avarta 2+ goals
37%
Avarta 3+ goals
14%
B 93 1+ goals
72%
B 93 2+ goals
36%
B 93 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Avarta (draw refunded)
50%
B 93 (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Avarta at home — creates 1.27, concedes 0.82 · 11 matches

B 93 away — creates 1.73, concedes 1.29 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Avarta attack 1.27 + B 93 defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.28

B 93 attack 1.73 + Avarta defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Avarta scores more
37%
level
27%
B 93 scores more
36%

Avarta at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Avarta will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

30'
M. Cordua
49'
D. Stuckler
90+1'
S. Norgaard
90+1'
S. Norgaard

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Avarta vs B 93

Avarta and B 93 drew 1-1 in 2nd Division - Group 1 on March 8, 2020.

Goals: M. Cordua (30'), D. Stuckler (49').

The match was played at Espelundens Idrætsanlæg in Rødovre.