Avanhard II 1–2 Real Pharm: Result & Stats

Avanhard II

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Real Pharm

V. Klyuev 17'

B. Prybluda 85' (pen), 81'

11/15/2019

Druha Liga - Group B · Group B - 21Stadion Prapor

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Avanhard II52%

×Draw25%

Real Pharm23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Avanhard IIExpected goals in this matchReal Pharm

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.58

0.96

Avanhard II

1.58

Real Pharm

0.96

Avanhard II creates 65% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 31 away

0.90

creates per match

0.52

1.40

allows per match

2.26

creates per match

Avanhard II

0.90

Real Pharm

0.52

allows per match

Avanhard II

1.40

Real Pharm

2.26

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Avanhard II+0.00on par

Real Pharm+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Avanhard II ↓

Real Pharm →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Avanhard II or draw

77%

Avanhard II or Real Pharm

75%

Draw or Real Pharm

48%

Winning margin

Avanhard II wins by 2+

27%

Real Pharm wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Avanhard II 1+ goals

79%

Avanhard II 2+ goals

47%

Avanhard II 3+ goals

21%

Real Pharm 1+ goals

62%

Real Pharm 2+ goals

25%

Real Pharm 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Avanhard II (draw refunded)

69%

Real Pharm (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Avanhard II at home — creates 0.90, concedes 1.40 · 10 matches

Real Pharm away — creates 0.52, concedes 2.26 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Avanhard II attack 0.90 + Real Pharm defence 2.26 → ÷2 → 1.58

Real Pharm attack 0.52 + Avanhard II defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Avanhard II scores more

52%

level

25%

Real Pharm scores more

23%

Avanhard II at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Avanhard II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

17'

V. Klyuev

62'

I. Glynyanyi← M. Shcherbak

63'

O. Mashnin← V. Polishchuk

66'

A. Varenyk← V. Cholovskyi

70'

73'

A. Rudenko← A. Shapovalenko

75'

D. Kurylets← V. Blyznyuk

79'

Y. Lytvyn← M. Bashynskyi

81'

V. Storozhuk← A. Rudenko

81'

B. Prybluda

85'

B. PrybludaPenalty

88'

D. Vladymyrov← B. Katorkin

90'

O. Chebanenko← M. Maksymenko

Avanhard

Real

▼

▼

▼

⚽2

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

Manager: O. Ivashchenko

75'▲D. Kurylets←▼V. Blyznyuk

79'▲Y. Lytvyn←▼M. Bashynskyi

88'▲D. Vladymyrov←▼B. Katorkin

90'▲O. Chebanenko←▼M. Maksymenko

Avanhard II substitutes

KuryletsLytvynVladymyrovChebanenko

Manager: O. Spitsyn

62'▲I. Glynyanyi←▼M. Shcherbak

63'▲O. Mashnin←▼V. Polishchuk

66'▲A. Varenyk←▼V. Cholovskyi

73'▲A. Rudenko←▼A. Shapovalenko

81'▲V. Storozhuk←▼A. Rudenko

Real Pharm substitutes

GlynyanyiMashninVarenykRudenkoStorozhuk

Match Recap: Avanhard II vs Real Pharm

Real Pharm beat Avanhard II 2-1 in Druha Liga - Group B on November 15, 2019.

Goals: V. Klyuev (17'), B. Prybluda (81', 85' pen).

The match was played at Stadion Prapor in Kramatorsk.

Avanhard II vs Real Pharm — Druha Liga - Group B 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Avanhard II vs Real Pharm