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Avanhard II vs Krystal — Druha Liga - Group B 2019

Avanhard II
Avanhard II
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Krystal
Krystal
8/4/2019Druha Liga - Group BDruha Liga - Group B · Group B - 2Stadion Avanhard

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Avanhard II32%
×Draw25%
Krystal43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Avanhard II
1.27
Krystal
1.50

Krystal creates 18% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 20 away

creates per match

Avanhard II
0.90
Krystal
1.60

allows per match

Avanhard II
1.40
Krystal
1.65

finishing

Avanhard II+0.00on par
Krystal+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Avanhard II ↓

Krystal →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–27%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Avanhard II or draw
57%
Avanhard II or Krystal
75%
Draw or Krystal
68%

Winning margin

Avanhard II wins by 2+
14%
Krystal wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Avanhard II 1+ goals
72%
Avanhard II 2+ goals
36%
Avanhard II 3+ goals
14%
Krystal 1+ goals
78%
Krystal 2+ goals
44%
Krystal 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Avanhard II (draw refunded)
43%
Krystal (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Avanhard II at home — creates 0.90, concedes 1.40 · 10 matches

Krystal away — creates 1.60, concedes 1.65 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Avanhard II attack 0.90 + Krystal defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.27

Krystal attack 1.60 + Avanhard II defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Avanhard II scores more
32%
level
25%
Krystal scores more
43%

Krystal at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Krystal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Druha Liga - Group B: Avanhard II 0–0 Krystal

Avanhard II and Krystal drew 0-0 in Druha Liga - Group B on August 4, 2019.

The match was played at Stadion Avanhard in Novohrad-Volyns'kyi.